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     2009 Bust RBs
8/6/2009 11:22:25 AM
 
     Between 2008's one hit wonders and the group of very productive but aging RBs in the league, 2009 has some big name bust RBs waiting to happen. This year's first round appears to carry more risk with it than those in years past. Three or four names on this year's Bust list will go in your first round, make sure you're not the one to take them though. There are some other names on this list for you to avoid in later rounds as well.

DeAngelo Williams
20 TDs, not going to happen again. There are several reasons why. One, his previous season high was five, he's not exactly a TD machine. Last year was an anomaly. Two, Jonathan Stewart is the type of runner that coach John Fox likes, brutal. He'll get more playing time, especially around the goalline. Three, the Panthers were good last year, so they'll likely be bad this year, they just can't string together two good seasons in a row. Rarely do RBs post big numbers on bad teams.

Michael Turner
Lots of touches last year, a scary number. Only LaDainian Tomlinson can take a beating like that and come back as good, or stronger! With Jerius Norwood available, don't be surprised if the Falcons spell Turner a little more often. They should have last year, but didn't. Matt Ryan isn't a rookie anymore either, so they won't rely on the running game quite so heavily.

Clinton Portis
Portis was posting some huge numbers through the first half of 2008. Then his age and mileage caught up to him. He had an atrocious second half (two TDs and two 100 total yard games in his final eight contests) and caused his owners serious drops in the standings. Don't expect him to finish any stronger this year, as he's just another year older. Don't be surprised if he starts strong though.

Marion Barber
Barber's 2008 story was eerily similar to Portis'. Both started very strong in the first eight games, both fizzled out down the stretch (Barber had only two TDs and two 100 total yard games in his final eight contests). Barber's fall wasn't due to age though, but durability. He is a physical runner and apparently can't handle the beating that comes with it. Add to that Felix Jones' health (he averaged over eight yards a touch last year) and Tashard Choice's success last year, and Barber won't be getting the workload required to post stud numbers.

Willie Parker
Parker had his string of three straight 1,000 yard seasons snapped last year. He only played in 11 games, and failed to score double digit TDs for the third time in four years as the starter. The Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall in the first round of the 2008 draft, and he returns to the team healthy. He should get a lot of work in his second season, taking carries away from Parker. Parker's great 2006 seems farther and farther away as he fails to post similar numbers on a consistently powerful team. 2009 will be another disappointment for those who think he can return to his 2006 numbers.

Jamal Lewis
Lewis eeked out another 1,000 yard season, but tallied the second lowest yards and TD totals of his career. In nine years he eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark eight times, and the 2,000 yard mark once. Very impressive. That said, he'll be 30 before the season starts and has over 10,000 yards on his legs. His offense is also no closer to being even respectable, and he plays in a division with the Ravens and Steelers, and the Bengals could even field a good defense in 2009. None of the signs look good for Lewis.

Thomas Jones
Thomas Jones in 2008 reminds me of Curtis Martin in 2004. A nice story, but one not likely to be repeated. Jones will be 31 when the season starts, and is playing for a team with a very questionable offense. With Brett Favre under center last year teams were forced to worry about the passing game, but this year they'll worry more about the running game. The Jets also have Leon Washington, who proved to be explosive last year, and 2009 draft pick Shonn Greene to take touches away from Jones.

Willis McGahee
It's hard to consider Willis McGahee a bust after rushing for 671 yards last year, but I fear his name has some GMs considering taking him earlier than he deserves. While he's still young, his legs aren't. They have taken quite a beating, especially with that horrific hit in college. The Ravens appear to have moved on from the thought that he was their feature back. Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain both carried their share of the load last year, and both succeeded. This could be another three man rotation this year, or Rice could win the job outright. Either way, McGahee probably doesn't even warrant a roster spot this year.



 
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