Hits
Adrian Peterson
Peterson has taken the torch of best fantasy player from LaDainian Tomlinson. Peterson put some fears to rest last season as he played all 16 regular season games, and rushed for over 1750 yards. A 2000 yard season is possible at some point in his career. He isn't a big threat in the passing game, but if he tallies 100 yards on the ground every game, who cares. He didn't find the end zone a lot either, scoring only 10 times, but that could change this year. Then there is Brett Favre, if he returns Peterson will see fewer eight man fronts, which only helps.
Matt Forte
Last year as a rookie, Forte took the league by storm, albeit quietly. He totalled 1700 yards and scored 12 TDs. In PPR leagues he helped owners with an impressive 64 receptions. The Bears are a good defensive team that will rely on the running game, especially as the weather gets worse down the stretch, so Forte's chances won't disappear with the arrival of Jay Cutler. I wouldn't be worried about a sophomore slump or anything else either. Especially not backups stealing carries. Forte is far and above better than any other RBs on that roster.
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jones-Drew is finally getting his chance as a feature back. He has averaged 1300 total yards and over 12 TDs a season in the last three years in a committee with Fred Taylor. He hasn't had 200 carries in a season yet either. Expect 300 carries this year and something similar to his 62 receptions from last year. The only question with Jones-Drew is will he hold up? I think everybody who saw him level Shawne Merriman a few years ago knows the answer to that question. He could be the most productive RB in the league this year, and deserves to be in the top three.
Chris Johnson
Almost 1500 yards and 10 TDs. 15 TDs were poached by big fat LenDale White who average under four yards a carry last year. The coaching staff must be getting near fed up with White, and once they get pushed over the edge, look for Johnson to be an absolute stud. Add in the Titans dependence on the run game, and even if White stays out of the doghouse Johnson should post respectable numbers. He'll likely get more looks either way next year.
Steve Slaton
Slaton is the least sexy pick here, and therefore might fall out of the first round. But if you're sitting there choosing between two of the guys coming up in the Misses section below, let your friends laugh at you all you want and take the safe and productive choice with Slaton. He wasn't the starter at the beginning of the season, but he still ended the season with over 1600 yards and 10 TDs. The Texans could finally break out this year, with the Colts still aging and the Titans losing Albert Haynesworth, but even if they stagger to another 8-8 record, Slaton is going to be a main part of it and will reward which owner takes the chance on him. It's up to you whether you get your money's worth in the first or somebody else gets a huge bargain in the second.
Drew Brees
A QB in the first round, you must be crazy! Yeah, I know, but it's Drew Brees. Do you want 4500 passing yards and 30 TDs more than a RB with a bum knee or one good season out of three under his belt? I know I do. When I get past the five best-bet RBs shown above, I'm ready to look to another position. The problem is I don't see any sure-fire WRs (and I'm a Cardinals fan, see below), so QB is where I've come. Brees has had three amazing seasons in New Orleans, and nothing is changing. He eclipsed 5000 yards last year without his best WR. Expect another 4500 yards and 25 TDs, and don't be surprised if you get more.

Misses
Brian Westbrook
Every year I warn about Westbrook, and last year he really came through and proved me right. I angrily emailed a certain major magazine last year when one of their experts used the durability card to argue that Westbrook was a better bet than Adrian Peterson. Westbrook has never played all 16 games, and isn't going to start at the age of 30, which he will be before Game 1. Last year he had a very unimpressive string of four games when he tallied 260 total yards and didn't score a TD Weeks 9-12. You don't need your first round pick dropping six points a week when you're trying to secure a playoff spot. He also finished the year with 245 totaly yards and no TDs in his last three games. He's streaky, 30, and is coming off two offseason surgeries, not worth the risk.
Michael Turner
400. Turner never had 100 carries in a season while backing up LT in San Diego, and then last year he had 377 regular season carries and added another 18 in a playoff loss in Arizona. If you add the seven receptions you've got over 400 touches. Turner wasn't overworked quite like Larry Johnson was in 2006, with 416 regular season carries, but I'd still be a little weary. He's the least worrisome of these Misses, but still somebody I'd avoid if I could. He did post great numbers last year, and the offense only got better with the addition of Tony Gonzalez and the maturing of some young linemen.
DeAngelo Williams
Lightning in a bottle. His previous high in TDs was five, then he scored 20 last year, including four in Week 16, costing me my super bowl. But that's neither here nor there. Over 1600 yards and 20 TDs warrants a top five pick right? Not when those 20 TDs was a fluke and Jonathan Stewart is ready to start taking more carries away from you. Add to that the Panthers eerie inability to put good seasons back to back and Jake Delhomme alone on the QB depth chart, and there is some major risk with this pick.
Marion Barber
I think mentioning his 2008 is enough in this case, but I'll add in Felix Jones and Tashard Choice as further hindrance. Barber finally got his chance to start as Julius Jones packed his bags for Seattle last year. Barber only got to 238 carries and nine TDs, but totalled 1300 yards. He started the season great, but cooled down a little after three weeks, and a lot after eight weeks, as he had only two TDs and two 100 total yard games after the midway point. I expect more from my first rounder than that. Add in the return of the stunning Felix Jones and Tashard Choice's emergence last year, and there won't be enough carries to go around.
Andre Johnson
Many experts have him as the number one WR in fantasy after his 1575 yards and eight TDs last year, but I'm not buying it. Matt Schaub hasn't played more than 11 games in a season, so you can count on him missing time. While Rex Grossman isn't awful and could toss some nice long balls to Johnson, Schaub is better and they'll lose continuity when he goes down this year. Johnson hasn't scored double digit TDs in his six NFL seasons, and with a serious threat in the backfield in Houston for the first time ever, I wouldn't expect Johnson's TD totals to suddenly spike.
Clinton Portis
Portis' 2008 was quite similar to Marion Barber's, with only two TDs and two 100 total yard games after the midway point. Portis seems a lot older than his 28 years at the start of the season, and rightfully so. He's been a workhorse for seven years, one fewer than LT, who hit a bit of a snag last year, is this Portis' year to hit a snag? Portis has been extremely productive throughout his career, so it's hard to pass him up, but his time is coming soon, and the year he ceases being productive, it won't come like LT's 1500 yards and 12 TDs of last year, it'll be a much more harmful drop in production for his owner.