So I checked in recent history for all RBs who had 250 rushes or 300 total touches in their rookie season. I got 11 players, three of which were Forte, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton, so they were immediately removed from the list, as we don't know how their second seasons are going to go, that's what we're trying to predict. It did however re-emphasize just how impressive what those three RBs did last year really was.

So the remaining eight players are LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Clinton Portis, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, and Ricky Williams. Tomlinson played all 16 games both seasons. Lewis missed the entire 2001 season with a knee injury, which isn't good news. Portis played three fewer games in his second season, from 16 down to 13. Taylor played five fewer games, from 15 to 10. James played all 16 games both years. McGahee actually played one more game his second season, from 15 to 16 games. Lynch played two more games in his second season, from 13 to 15. Finally, Williams played two fewer games, from 12 down to 10 games.

Overall, Jamal Lewis was a big loss, and Fred Taylor's five games were also considerable, but there was no strong trend as only two of the eight players missed considerably more time. Half of the eight did play fewer games though, so there should be some concern. Let's look at what's more important; their statistical output. Obvsiously Lewis didn't repeat his rookie season's numbers of over 1600 total yards and six TDs as he didn't play.

Fred Taylor, the other player to miss significant time, also saw his numbers drop. He had 139 fewer touches, 829 fewer yards, and 11 fewer TDs, serious dents in his production. Lewis and Taylor raise some big red flags with their sophomore slumps. But that is where the slumps end in our little study.

Despite there being two more players who played fewer games, all six remaining players had as many or more touches in their second season. Marshawn Lynch had as many touches in his second year as in his rookie year, with 29 fewer carries and 29 more receptions.

Each of the six players had more yards in their second season, with the smallest jump being Clinton Portis' 33 more yards, and the biggest increase being LaDainian Tomlinson's 569 more yards as he eclipsed the 2,000 total yard plateau for the first time in his illustrious career. So six out of the eight RBs that fit the criteria in recent years actually gained more yards, impressive.

How about TDs? Clinton Portis had fewer TDs as he recorded 14, down three from his rookie year total of 17. I'd take 14 any year. Willis McGahee had a significant drop of eight from 13 down to five, which coincided with the pitiful Ravens offense in 2005. The other four RBs all increased their TD scoring prowess with Ricky Williams making the biggest jump of seven from two to nine, and Edgerrin James scoring an impressive 18 in his second season, up only one from his almsot as impressive rookie total of 17.

Maybe there is a link between the missed time and the number of touches they had in their rookie season. The two who had the most touches were LaDainian TOmlinson and Edgerrin James. Both players played all 16 games both seasons and both players saw their touches, yards and TDs increase in their second seasons. The two RBs with the most touches after James and Tomlinson were Jamal Lewis and Fred Taylor, so there is a trend there, but Tomlinson and James should keep you from overcommitting to that trend.