With all of the young QB stars emering last year, it seems for slim pickin's in the Bust
category as well. How many of those young stud QBs were flukes? I don't think any
were personally. So if the players aren't flukes, we should look at their surroundings
to determine who is least likely to repeat their success from last year, and who is
overrated.
Jay Cutler
The Bears just don't have the offensive firepower that the Broncos do. Brandon Marshall
is one of the most talented WRs in the league, and Eddie Royal had a very nice rookie
season, eclipsing 1,000 total yards and proving most productive in a gadget roll as well
as a starting WR. Cutler just won't have those types of options this year. Devin Hester
is fast but extremely unpolished and small. Cutler gets reunited with Earl Bennett
who hasn't caught a pass yet in the NFL and never posted terribly spectacular numbers
at Vanderbilt. The Bears also play in Chicago where the weather should take its toll
on the passing game, and second year RB Matt Forte should be the centerpiece of the
offense. Cutler is a good QB who can post big numbers in the right situation, but Chicago
doesn't seem to be the right place.
Eli Manning
"He won a Super Bowl!" Yes, we know. That's about all he's done. And in fantasy football,
that's just about nothing. Eli finally completed 60% of his passes last year for the first
time in his five year career, but again failed to reach 3,500 passing yards (he ecliped
3,500 passing yards just once, in 2005) and also fell short of 25 TDs. He did have his
best TD / Interception ratio though, with 11 more TDs - he'd been at 13 more TDs for his
career prior to 2008. So he's never posted huge passing stats, and he lost his big play
WR, Plaxico Burress. The Giants have no established WRs on their team and are hoping
that Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon emerge as legitimate starters this year. That doesn't
look good for Eli.
Kerry Collins
Another player you shouldn't have been considering for your fantasy team this year, Collins
threw for fewer than 3,000 yards and only 12 TDs. He was a game manager for a team with
a great defense and a solid young running game. So why is he a bust? Because believe
it or not, with his conservative mistake-free play last year, some of you had him and
some of you are considering drafting him. There is no upside here, and lots of downside.
The defense lost its centerpiece in Albert Haynesworth, and you're going to see just
how big a difference a dominant nose tackle makes in the NFL if you watch the Tennessee
defense closely. The Titans aren't going to perform well in 2009, and Collins will reflect
that with his own underachieving.
Kurt Warner
Same team, same pair of Pro Bowl wideouts, same 1,000 yard third WR as last year. How can
Warner possibly be a Bust candidate? His injury history. Warner is a serious injury risk
and that warrants his spot on this list. If he is healthy he will throw for 4,000 yards
again and probably top 10 TDs again, but he's just too risky. He's 38 and immobile behind
a line that still hasn't established its reliability. In 11 years he's played 16 games just
three times, topping 4,000 yards and 30 TDs in each of those seasons.
Tony Romo
Terrell Owens is gone, and we will see how that affects Romo. It will help Romo in the
sense that Owens won't be in the locker room fouling up team chemistry, but Romo will miss
his big play ability in the passing game. The Cowboys also have three very good RBs in
Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, who all showed their worth last year when
given the chance. The Cowboys also have a huge offensive line to help clear the way for
their runners. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys run more of a ball control offense
this year.
Ben Roethlisberge
"He won two Super Bowls!" Yes, we know. He also threw for 32 TDs one year. That was
the exception to the rule though, as he has thrown for 17 TDs three years and 18 in
his other season. His career averages are 3,000 passing yards and 20 TDs. While those
aren't bad numbers, they do not warrant where he will be picked in your draft. The
owner that does draft him may catch that lightning in a bottle in the 32 TDs from 2007,
but more likely than not he will disappoint again by not playing up to the hype.