Everything has value. That value is completely different to completely different people. One car
is more expensive than another because it will have better re-sale value, but if you plan on running
it into the ground, why pay extra up front when you won't yield the value in the end? People buy
bottled water but if you like your tap water, why would you buy it? The fantasy world is no
different. You need to determine players' value to you, and everybody else.
There are three important values in the fantasy world, Value to You, "Experts" Value and League
Value. Value to you is what a player is worth based on the production level you expect from him.
"Experts" value is where you'll see the players ranked on the web sites and magazines out there
designed to help you. Unfortunately, they don't really help because they're all different and you
can't know which is right. I've seen Chris Wells ranked 27th and 82nd so far. Finally, there is
League Value. This is how the general managers in your league value the players, and it is the
most important value to gauge on draft day.
First, you need to get your cheat sheets straightened out. Mark your sleepers and injury risks and
bye weeks and have them ready for draft day. Most importantly, don't stray from these on draft day.
Put in all your work beforehand and then trust that work. It's hard to do, I've always strayed
on draft day, and it cost me both Tom Brady and Randy Moss in 2007.
Next, go searching around to see how the "Experts" rank the players. You'll probably start your own
ranking with somebody else's rankings, but once you're done with yours, revisit that initial ranking
you found, and check online at the major sites to see where they have everybody. This will give you
an idea of where players will be getting drafted and you can develop a draft strategy from there.
For instance, this year there seem to be a lot of good QBs who are of similar value, so why take the
third best in the 3rd round when you can grab the eighth best (if you determine that he is of similar
vaue to the third best) in the 6th round?
Finally, you need to realize that your league's general managers will have cheat sheets that vary
from yours and those of the "Experts." It is impossible to know what the other nine, 11 or 13 GMs
are thinking, but you can create some guesses. It is important to know how your league thinks,
because you don't want to grab a guy earlier than you need to. You might value him as a 6th
rounder, but if the rest of your league values him as a 10th rounder, wait until the 9th to take
him and you can get a better player with that 6th round pick. The other owners won't all be
predictable, but below are some drafting trends that should help you better predict where certain
players might go off the board.
Fantasy owners all want to strike it rich. In 2007 Adrian Peterson burst onto the stage with
over 1600 yards and 13 TDs. In 2008 everybody was touting Darren McFadden as "this year's
Peterson." The fact is though that there is rarely a rookie RB who dominates like Peterson did.
So McFadden's "Experts" and League values were very high, but you realized that he wasn't going
to repeat Peterson's success to you downgraded his value on your board, let him pass by, and
didn't have to worry about him last year.
Every league seems to have one "by-the-book" owner who will take the available player ranked highest
in his magazine. He is very predictable. It would be nice how that magazine ranked all the players
because they're all different but you can be pretty sure he won't be taking any chances on any
sleepers, and won't be updated on what's been happening in the league since that magazine went to
print.
Auto-drafters are the easiest to predict because you can see who their next pick will be in the
league's pre-rankings. Sure, maybe the GM changed his own rankings, but considering he missed
the draft, it's reasonable to assume he didn't do the homework before the draft. You'll also know
in a pick or two whether he updated his rankings.
Another predictable owner is the homer owner. If you have a particular sleeper in mind, and there
is a homer owner in your league that likes the team he plays for, be prepared for him to reach for
your sleeper sooner than you expect. It's up to you to decide how much you believe in the sleeper.
Were you willing to take DeSean Jackson in the 7th round last year?
Then there is the owner who reads just enough about fantasy to be dangerous. He talked to you a
week ago about how amazing it is that WRs tend to breakout in their third year. Check out the
third year WRs on your cheat sheet and prepate for them to get drafted a little earlier if that
owner needs WRs at that point in the draft.
Some of the owners in your league might have other quirks as well. Take a look at last year's
draft if you have the chance and you might get an idea or two about who they're targeting and
when. Some owners only like possession WRs or reach for players who play their home games in
doors or in fair weather cities. All the factors that you consider or don't may or may not
be considered by the other GMs in your league, and they will be weighed differently.